The Conservatives are two points behind Labour in a new YouGov poll, their best showing since the 2024 general election
A YouGov poll for The Times, published on Tuesday 3 November, puts Labour on 26%, the Conservatives on 24% (their highest since the 2024 election), Reform UK on 21%, the Liberal Democrats on 11% and the Greens on 10% (no movement). It is YouGov's first voting-intention poll since last week's Budget.
Our outlet list is not evenly split: about 50% left-rated, 15% centre and 35% right-rated, so raw splits lean left by construction. Blindspots are tested against each side's own share. About our sample.
Left 0 · Centre-left 1 · Centre 0 · Centre-right 1 · Right 4
ContextSources by leanVideoDeep diveFollow the moneyMore coverage
How each side framed it
Right-leaning outlets
'Andy Burnham has suffered another blow as the Tories creep up behind Labour' (GB News); 'Kemi Badenoch snapping at Andy Burnham's heels as Tories close gap in bombshell poll' (Daily Express).
Centre outlets
No least-biased (centre) outlet in our sample covered it.
Left-leaning outlets
'Tories dramatically close gap on Labour in best polling since general election' (The Independent): Reform UK is third for the third week running.
Context
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Sources by lean
Balanced: the same number of articles from the left, the centre and the right (up to 3 each). The bar above still counts every rated outlet we found. Bias and factual ratings come from Media Bias/Fact Check. How we balance · All ratings.
Right 1
Centre 0
No centre coverage found — blindspot
Left 1
Showing 1 from left and right of 6 rated outlets (L 1 / C 0 / R 5). Capped at 1 because that is all we found on the thinnest side. More coverage
Video
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Deep dive
A short prompt for thinking it through. We write a fuller side-by-side deep dive for the day's biggest stories.
The paradox: One poll, read as a Tory revival by right-leaning outlets and as Reform slipping by The Independent.
What each side may be protecting: Right: the opposition's momentum. Left: Labour's recovery since the summer low of 19%.
A question to hold: Shared question: how far does a single poll move the picture compared with the polling average?
Try it: open one right and one left article in Sources by lean and note what each takes for granted.
Follow the money
Not yet researched. We haven't yet looked at who gains or loses financially from this story, or who funds the main voices on each side. When we do, we check company filings, the Electoral Commission donations register, lobbying registers, annual reports, InfluenceMap and OpenSecrets, and we apply the same checks to every side. How we follow the money.
Who owns or funds the outlets covering this story (6 outlets)
| Outlet | Lean | Ownership & funding (MBFC) |
|---|---|---|
| The Independent | Centre-left | The Independent is owned by Independent Print Limited, a company owned by the Lebedev family (Alexander Lebedev and his son Evgeny Lebedev). In 2017, Saudi Businessman Sultan Muhammad Abuljadayel bought a 30% stake in the Independent online newspaper. Advertising and subscription generate revenue for the paper..push({}); source |
| The Times | Centre-right | The Times and Sunday Times is owned by News UK (News Corp UK & Ireland Limited), which American News Corp owns. The owner and Executive Chairman of News Corp are Rupert Murdoch. Revenue is derived from advertising and subscription fees. source |
| Daily Express | Right | The Daily Express is owned by Reach plc (formerly known as Trinity Mirror), a British newspaper, magazine, and digital publisher. Subscriptions, newsstand sales, and advertising generate revenue. source |
| Daily Mail | Right | The Daily Mail is published by Associated Newspapers Limited, part of Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT). DMGT is controlled by the Rothermere family and is 100% owned by Rothermere Continuation Limited. Jonathan Harmsworth, 4th Viscount Rothermere, serves as Chairman..push({}); DMGT became privately owned after delisting from the London Stock Exchange in 2022. source |
| GB News | Right | GB News lacks transparency as they do not disclose ownership. A search reveals that London-based ALL Perspectives Ltd owns GB News. According to Reuters, the television channel “secured millions of dollars from investors such as Discovery Inc, Legatum and hedge fund manager Paul Marshall. source |
| The Sun | Right | The Sun is published by the News Group Newspapers division of News UK, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. The paper generates revenue through advertising, newsstand sales, and subscriptions. source |